Economic activity rose 3.3% year on year in June (May: +4.2% yoy). June’s outturn marked the worst reading since February 2021.
That said, activity was driven by the trade and repair of vehicles, manufacturing, real estate, and financial services sectors.
Analysts at the EIU added:
“Guatemala’s economic rebound will stabilise later in the forecast period, but in the near term we expect faster GDP growth as the economy reopens and Guatemalans continue to receive huge inflows of workers’ remittances—mainly from the US, where job conditions are still strong. […] Although there are various risks to this outlook. One is that the domestic economy could be incapable of sustaining these growth rates if the US economy were to enter a recession in the next two years. As the US is the main market for Guatemalan exports and principal source of remittances, a sharper than anticipated slowdown there would hurt Guatemala’s economic activity substantially. Another risk is that rising prices will hurt consumer purchasing power in the next few months.
GDP is seen expanding 3.6% in 2022. For 2023, our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.1%.